WeatherZine #10
WeatherZine #10
Number 10, June 1998
"What's happening on the Societal Aspects of Weather WWW Site."
WeatherZine is a bi-monthly on-line and e-mail distribution newsletter for the Societal Aspects of Weather Site. It contains a summary of recent changes to the site (along with links to relevant sections), and news, events, and announcements of interest to the community.
WeatherZine, and its parent WWW site, accept and encourage the submission of activities, events, or links of interest to the community. You can use the on-line forms in the Feedback section or can send an email to thunder@ucar.edu with the item you would like to see posted on the site or included in the next issue of the Zine.
Contents
- Editorial
- "Normal" weather and climate
- Community News
- Weather Research in NSF/
- Social, Behavioral, and Economics Research Directorate
- New Additions to the WWW Site:
- Emergency Management
- Flood
- El Nino
- Tropical Cyclone
- Economic & Casualty Data
- Subscribe Now!
[1] Editorial -- "Normal" weather and climate
"Normal" weather and climate
There has been a lot going on with the weather of late. Floods, fires, and heat waves have dominated headlines in recent weeks. Such extremes serve to focus public and policy attention on important issues like climate change and natural hazards. These events also provide an opportunity to reconsider how we as a society view our relationship with the atmosphere. One central concept that underlies day-to-day discussions about the atmosphere is "normal" weather. The way we talk about "normal" weather just might obscure a more accurate conception of weather and climate with important implications for the decisions that we make.
The term "normal" has different connotations when used in the context of weather and climate.
Experiential:
Over a human lifetime, one experiences a wide range of weather and becomes aware of even more through the media. This body of experience defines what is "normal." This is what Secretary of State Madeline Albright meant when she commented recently that "I have been on Earth now for 60 years, and I have never witnessed weather of the kind I have seen, read about, and heard about these past few years."
Statistical:
The familiar bell-shaped curve that we have all seen in statistics is also called a "normal curve." It is a mathematically precise description of a probability distribution. At the midpoint of the distribution (the top of the "bell") we find the average of a distribution. So when your local TV weather forecaster discusses the "normal" temperature for today, he or she means the average in a statistical sense, even though a wide range of temperatures might be considered "normal" (as in "typical.")
Typical:
People have expectations about what sorts of weather are "appropriate" on planet Earth. When weather events violate these expectations, people look for explanations. For instance, in 1993 a U.S. Congress hearing was held to ask "has nature gone mad?" Debate on global warming has focused on whether climate might change in a manner that is not normal i.e., beyond "natural" variability.
When weather and climate experts talk about "normal" weather, they often mean this in a statistical sense. For instance, here in Boulder we have had above average (not normal) temperatures over the past week. But it is typical (normal) for a Colorado summer to see several such heat waves. So at once, the weather is both normal and not normal. Given such imprecise use of language, its not surprising that people get confused.
Others have identified this potentially confusing terminology (see, e.g., http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/~doswell/Normals/normal.html and Pielke, Sr. and N. Waage, 1987. Nat. Wea. Dig 12:20-22.) But it seems that the problem goes deeper than just terminology. The confusion over the use of the term "normal" underlies a more fundamental issue, that of climate stationarity.
We assume, as Al Gore has written, that "the earth's climate follows a relatively predictable pattern in the sense that even though there are constant changes, they always fall within the boundaries of the same overall pattern." This "overall pattern" whether defined experientially, statistically, or some other way sets the expectations on which climate- and weather-sensitive decisions are made.
But what if this overall pattern that we are used to is only a momentary pause in the earth's climate? In other words, what if changes in the overall pattern are themselves normal? What would abrupt and drastic climate changes (whatever their cause) mean for societies around the world?
What to do? Clearly, scientists and the media can do a better job of communicating what they mean when they talk about weather and climate, e.g., by using average when they mean average. But more broadly, with the input of climatologists, policy makers must become aware of the assumptions that they have about weather and climate and the role that these assumptions play in decision making. A place to start is by understanding "normal" weather and climate.
- Roger A. Pielke, Jr.
[2] Community News
Weather Research in NSF/ Social, Behavioral, and Economics Research Directorate
The National Science Foundation (NSF) is the one of the United States government agencies responsible for supporting science. NSF supports a considerable amount of research into the societal aspects of natural hazards and global climate change. With the help of NSF we are able to provide a list of NSF grants from its Social, Behavioral, and Economics Research Directorate that are focused on the societal aspects of weather. The list should be considered fairly complete, but not exhaustive. One of the goals of the U.S. Weather Research Program is to compile information from across the agencies on support for societal impacts research. Such a "cross-cut" would allow for judgements about where we are investing in this important area and where important questions might lie unanswered. The information provided by the NSF is an important step in that direction.
[3] New Additions to the WWW Site
Emergency Management
Public Safety Wireless Network (http://www.pswn.gov) Everyone living within the United States expects government entities to respond, mitigate damage, and provide emergency assistance during disasters. Emergency workers are trained to respond to a variety of events, such as natural and technological disasters, terrorist actions, and criminal activities, as well as to conduct other life-saving activities such as search and rescue operations. To be effective before, during, and after their response, public safety officials, throughout all levels of government, must be able to communicate with each other. Currently, federal, state, and local public safety entities compete for limited radio spectrum, have limited public safety budgets, and face challenges in keeping pace with advances in technology. Moreover, public safety officials operate separate tactical communications networks.
Natural Hazards Society (http://www.es.mq.edu.au/NHRC/NHS) The International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards was formally established in August of 1988. The more common name for the society is the Natural Hazards Society (NHS). Some of the major objectives of the society are:
- to promote research in all aspects of natural hazards
- to assist in the distribution of preparedness and emergency-response plans for countries around the world
- to assist in the formation and implementation of education programs on hazards prevention and mitigation.
The Wingspread Principles: A Community Vision for Sustainability (http://www.sustainable.doe.gov/wingspread2/wingprin.html) "The Wingspread Principles" - a document available from the U.S. Department of Energy's Center of Excellence for Sustainable Development Web site. Besides outlining a disaster recovery approach that promotes quality of life, public health and safety, environmental responsibility, and economic sustainability, the resolution calls on the federal government to allocate 1% of disaster appropriations for sustainable redevelopment technical assistance and to establish a Sustainable Redevelopment Strike Team to be deployed to disaster areas to promote sustainable recovery.
Flood
Flood Impacts (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hic/flood_stats/index.html) In most years, flooding causes more deaths and damage than any other hydrometeorological phenomena. In any years it is comon for three-quarters of all Federally declared disaster declarations to be due, at least in part, to flooding.
Boulder Creek Flood Notebook (http://www.colorado.edu/hazards/bcfn/) The "Boulder Creek Flood Notebook" is a unique Web project. It is a plan for documenting and disseminating information about the causes and effects of a specific disaster that has not yet happened: the next great flood of Boulder, Colorado.
The California Environmental Resources Evaluation System (CERES) (http://www.ceres.ca.gov/flood/) incorporates an excellent section on California flooding. The site includes a clickable map of potential and actual floods in California, copious links to sources of flood information and weather updates, as well as related information on such things as disaster preparedness and recovery, snow reports, etc.
El Nino
California El Nino Information (http://ceres.ca.gov/elnino/) The California Environmental Resources Evaluation System (CERES) is a Web-based information repository developed by the California Resources Agency "to facilitate access to a variety of electronic data describing the region's rich and diverse environments." The goal of CERES is to improve environmental analysis and planning by integrating natural and cultural resource information from multiple contributors and by making it available and useful to a wide variety of users. The site provides much information that is useful beyond California.
Tropical Cyclone
Tropical Cyclone Forecasters' Reference Guide (http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/~chu/) The Naval Research Lab has put a preliminary copy of Tropical Cyclone Forecasters' Reference Guide to the web.
Economic & Casualty Data
Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts (http://www.esig.ucar.edu/HP_rick/esig.html) Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts is a book edited by Richard Katz and Allan Murphy. This book examines how weather and climate forecasts can be used to mitigate the impact of weather on the economy. Contributions from economists, psychologists, meteorologists, and statisticians are included and encompass forecasts over a wide range of temporal scales. Excluded from the book were studies that treat weather- or climate-sensitive decision problems but use only climatological, instead of true forecast information. This book seeks to determine the economic benefits of existing weather forecasting systems, and the benefits of improving these systems.
[4] Subscribe Now!
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