WeatherZine #9
WeatherZine #9
Number 9, April 1998
"What's happening on the Societal Aspects of Weather WWW Site."
WeatherZine is a bi-monthly on-line and e-mail distribution newsletter for the Societal Aspects of Weather Site. It contains a summary of recent changes to the site (along with links to relevant sections), and news, events, and announcements of interest to the community.
WeatherZine, and its parent WWW site, accept and encourage the submission of activities, events, or links of interest to the community. You can use the on-line forms in the Feedback section or can send an email to thunder@ucar.edu with the item you would like to see posted on the site or included in the next issue of the Zine.
Contents
- Editorial
- El Nino and Armageddon
- Community News
- A National Flood Loss Model
- New Additions to the WWW Site:
- Emergency Management
- Flood
- Extreme Temperatures
- Tropical Cyclone
- Tornadoes
- El Nino
- Insurance Industry
- Economic & Casualty Data
- Media
- Correction
- Subscribe Now!
[1] Editorial -- El Nino and Armageddon
According to recent news reports, the documented damages to society related to the recent El Nino winter have been no worse than the previous two winters (non-El Nino). What are we to make of this?
A few weeks ago the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) released information showing that from November 1, 1997 to March 31, 1998 the agency had committed about $290 million in response to presidentially declared disasters. This amount is about the same as FEMA committed in each of the two previous winters. This statistic seems to have surprised FEMA, with one agency spokesperson commenting that "everybody was screaming that El Nino was going to be Armageddon, but our data reveals that's not what it's turned out to be."
Keeping Mark Twain's cautionary advice on statistics in mind, here are three suggestions about how you might interpret the FEMA data:
1. El Nino impacts in the United States overall do not mean Armageddon
What El Nino means is that different parts of the country are more or less likely to suffer particular weather events than in La Nina or neutral years. In fact, simply because hurricane damages are much larger during La Nina events, it is probably the case that the nation as a whole experiences LESS overall impacts in El Nino years than in many La Nina years. But for those places with strongly correlated weather impacts during El Nino events (like California), El Nino events might seem like Armageddon. In aggregate, however, El Nino is better thought of as a shift in the sort of weather impacts that we see, rather than as an overall increase for everyone.
2. Predictions of El Nino-related impacts can reduce disaster costs
The very fact that El Nino shifts the sort of impacts that the nation sees from non-El Nino years should provide usable information for those who are potentially affected. The summer and fall of 1997 saw a number of policy responses to scientific and media pronouncements that the Pacific Ocean was warming at an unprecedented rate. For instance, FEMA organized an El Nino summit in California to focus attention on the possibility of strong coastal storms. The state of Florida also organized an El Nino summit to focus attention on the possibility of extreme weather associated with thunderstorms. In both instances, the advance preparation proved prescient, as both states experienced extreme weather. These examples (and there are many others) provide a better picture of what El Nino information means to the nation than is provided by looking at aggregate impacts.
3. Disaster costs alone do not provide a measure of the value of advance preparation
One might be tempted to conclude that advance preparation efforts had little value because the past winter's disaster losses (according to FEMA) were similar to the previous two winters. This would be a mistake. Because weather impacts are highly random and FEMA's tabulation represents only a subset of documented impacts, one cannot compare different years and expect to see indication of the value of preparation. Consider that some in the insurance industry have speculated that better preparation for Hurricane Andrew might have saved $5 billion. But Andrew would have still been the costliest storm ever (in inflation-adjusted dollars only). Assessing the value of preparation, including advance warnings and forecasts, requires careful attention to the details of specific cases. This demands a considerable investment of time and attention. But if advance preparation is ever going to become a larger element of the nation's response to extreme weather, then we must know its costs and benefits.
The FEMA announcement suggests that perhaps the scientific community was at once too successful and not successful enough in publicizing last year's coming El Nino. They were too successful to the extent that people came to associate El Nino with Armageddon, and not successful enough to the extent that the public failed to appreciate the subtleties of extreme weather related to El Nino. These are important lessons to learn as the nation develops skill in interannual forecasting.
- Roger A. Pielke, Jr.
[2] Community News -- A National Flood Loss Model
In the past, escalating flood damages have become a significant concern of citizens, floodplain managers, and policy makers. In particular, practitioners and policy makers are seeking out new ways to reduce flood damages and make wise use of the nation's floodplains. Reducing disaster payments and payouts from the National Flood Insurance fund are also key objectives. To meet these goals, it was realized that tools for estimation flood losses are needed to be put into the hands of the practitioners who most directly impact the decision making process in local communities concerning land use policies, code enforcement, emergency preparedness, and other flood control strategies.
The HAZUS (Hazards US) Model utilizes GIS technologies with hazard identification, and loss estimation tools. The first HAZUS model addressed earthquake loss estimation and has become an essential element in FEMA's Project Impact. FEMA is now beginning to expand the HAZUS model to perform similar loss evaluations for other hazards, including flood, hurricane, tornado, coastal storm surge, and severe winter storms and thunderstorms. The current modeling effort will expand HAZUS to allow practitioners to plan for, and evaluate the potential effects of mitigation planning activities on flooding and flood loss.
NIBS and FEMA have initiated the development of a flood module for HAZUS (the "flood model"). The purpose of the flood model is to provide a nationally applicable standardized methodology for estimating potential flood losses on a regional basis. The model will be used to estimate potential flood effects and to assist in developing mitigation planning strategies. It will also enable those involved in emergency response and recovery to be better prepared for future flood events.
For more info see the FEMA and NIBS websites.
[3] New Additions to the WWW Site
Emergency Management
CEOS Disaster Management Support Project (http://www.ceos.noaa.gov) The Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) conducts a "Disaster Management Support Project" to strengthen natural and technological disaster management on a worldwide basis by fostering improved use of existing and planned earth observation satellite data. Supporting the committee's work, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has launched this Web site to provide ongoing specific satellite data on volcanic ash, floods, tropical storms, wildfire, El Nino, earthquakes, drought, and oil spills. It also provides special coverage of emerging crises, such as recent fires in Indonesia, as well as background information about the entire project.
Global Information Network for the Business Continuity Community (http://www.contingencyplanning.com/) Contingency Planning and Management magazine now offers this Web site - a "global information network for the business continuity community." Users can search the "magazine section" index for a broad range of articles on business continuity subjects; browse a "knowledge base" section for information on products and services available from over 500 suppliers; participate in an on-line forum; receive purchasing advice; take a look at surveys of personnel involved in contingency planning; and participate in surveys (the site currently is soliciting opinions regarding mitigation incentives).
Flood
National Hydrologic Outlook (http://www.outlook.noaa.gov/) This page from NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS) Hydrological Program presents the hydrological outlook for various regions of the country, including information on possible spring flooding. The site also offers recent Department of Commerce/NOAA/NWS news releases on potential flooding, other information from the Office of Hydrology and NWS, and, at the second URL above, a new page on the Department of Commerce's "Natural Disaster Reduction Initiative" (NDRI).
California Flooding
(http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ol/reports/febstorm/february98storms.html) During the month of February 1998, California was struck by a series of storms due in part to the effects of El Nino. The current estimates indicate at least US$ 475 million in damages for the state, with that total expected to climb. Also, the state has reported 16 storm-related deaths thus far. 35 countries have been declared federal disaster areas.
Red River Flooding Short-Term Measures
(http://www.ijc.org/boards/rrb/taskforce.html) Interim Report of the International Red River Basin Task Force to the International Joint Commission December, 1997, Ottawa / Washington.
Extreme Temperatures
Hypothermia-Related Deaths
(http://aepo-xdv-www.epo.cdc.gov/wonder/prevguid/m0044869/m0044869.htm) An Article on Hypothermia-related deaths in Vermont, October 1994 - February 1996, published 12/20/1996, in The CDC Prevention Guidelines Database [http://aepo-xdv-www.epo.cdc.gov/wonder/prevguid/prevguid.htm]
Ice Storm 1998 (http://www.tor.ec.gc.ca/events/icestorm98/)
While freezing rain is not an uncommon Canadian experience, the ice storm that hit eastern Ontario, Quebec, and New Brunswick was exceptional. Environment Canada senior climatologist and resident climate expert, David Phillips, provides us with his analysis of how Ice Storm '98 stacks up in the record books.
Climate Change and Weather Extremes
(http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ol/climate/climateextremes.html) NOAA's NCDC site, includes events, reports, publications, data, images and links to sites that deal with weather extremes.
Tropical Cyclone
The Deadliest Atlantic Tropical Cyclones, 1492 - Present
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/killers.html)
Tornadoes
American Association of Wind Engineering
(http://rongo.ce.jhu.edu/aawe) The American Association for Wind Engineering, formerly Wind Engineering Research Council, has promoted and disseminated research results in the field of wind engineering since 1970. It was initially organized at a conference on Wind Loads on Structuresat California Institute of Technology sponsored by the National Science Foundation. In 1983 it was incorporated as a non-profit organization. The multi-disciplinary field of wind engineering encompasses problems related to wind loads on buildings and structures, societal impacts of hurricanes and tornadoes, risk assessment and cost-benefit, codes and standards, dispersion of urban and industrial pollution, wind engineering and urban aerodynamics.
El Nino
A Comparison of Droughts, Floods and Hurricanes in the U.S. (http://enso.unl.edu/ndmc/enigma/compare.htm) Compiled by Cody Knutson, National Drought Mitigation Center Water Resources Specialist.
Insurance Industry
RiskINFO (http://www.riskinfo.com/) The RiskINFO Web site provides "Resources for Risk Management, Safety, and Insurance Professionals." It comprises many different materials, including current and back issues of the Risk Management Reports newsletter, as well as links to a lot of other useful risk management sites (for example, www.disasterplan.com, which offers, among other things, sample contingency and response plans for various hazards).
Insurance USA (http://www.insuranceusa.com/) The Insurance USA Web site offers information and research papers on such topics as the possible impact of a hurricane on New York (with maps of potential flooding), as well as a list of upcoming conferences and links to related disaster and news sites.
Economic & Casualty Data
Natural Disasters - Forecasting Hurricane Occurrence, Economic and Life Losses (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricane_forecast) A US Geological Survey (USGS) report.
Media
USAToday Homework Help (http://www.usatoday.com/weather/whmework.htm) USA TODAY's vast library of graphics, text, and links to other Web sites can help anyone looking for answers to questions about weather and climate and some other earth sciences topics such as earthquakes.
[4] Correction
Last issue we failed to acknowledge UCAR's role in the development of an AMS Congressional Fellows Program. The news item has been corrected.
[5] Subscribe Now!
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Societal Aspects of Weather
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