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AIList Digest Volume 3 Issue 165
AIList Digest Thursday, 7 Nov 1985 Volume 3 : Issue 165
Today's Topics:
Queries - Billy Salter's Thesis & Intensional Contents &
Validation of Knowledge Based Systems,
Applications - Reasoning About Shape and Graphics,
Cryptography - RSA Encryption,
AI Tools - Typed Languages and Lisp,
Opinion - AAAI and AI Hype,
Expert Systems - Stock Market Prediction Hype
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Date: Thu, 7 Nov 85 12:01:32 -0100
From: Rolf Pfeifer
Subject: Billy Salter's Thesis
I am looking for Billy Salter's Thesis on Subjective Theories of Economics
(or something like that). He got his PhD from Yale approximately in 83.
If anyone has a copy available or knows of Billy's whereabouts (possibly BBN?)
please let me know (including netmail address).
Thanks.
--Rolf Pfeifer
------------------------------
Date: 7 Nov 85 13:40:15 GMT
From: Bob Stine <stine@edn-vax.arpa>
Subject: Intensional Contents
'whois zalta' fails, so I'll direct this request to
the net. Can anyone give me pointers to Edward
Zalta's work on the "intentional contents of mental
states about fictions?" In AIList Digest V3 #163,
it was announced that Dr. Zalta would be giving
a lecture in Berkeley on that topic.
Would one use Golden Hill LISP to code assertion's
about Meinong's Golden Mountain?
- Bob Stine
------------------------------
Date: Thu, 7 Nov 85 16:03
From: at GEC Research <YE15%mrca.co.uk@ucl-cs.arpa>
Subject: Validation of Knowledge Based Systems
I am interested in carrying out some work on the validation of
real-time Knowledge Based Systems and would appreciate some help in
getting started. If anyone has any information they can send me on
this topic, in particular, significant references or current projects
it would be a great help. Thanks. Please send responses to:
Kevin Poulter (YE15%uk.co.mrca@uk.ac.ucl.cs)
GEC Research Ltd
Marconi Research Centre
West Hanningfield Road
Great Baddow
Chelmsford
Essex
CM2 8HN
United Kingdom
------------------------------
From: CONNOLLY CHRISTOPHER IAN <CONNOLLY@ge-crd.arpa>
Subject: reasoning about shape & graphics
Bach@score recently asked if anyone has tried to write a computer
program to reason about shape or graphics, in the context of IQ
tests:
I don't know if this is really what you were thinking of,
but Gelernter did some work on this at IBM back in 1958-1960.
His aim was to use diagrams to aid in proving geometrical theorems.
If I remember correctly, he succeeded in that his program was able
to prove several theorems in geometry. The work is reported in one
of the issues of the IBM research journal in 1960. Gelernter has
since escaped to Biophysics as an occupation (!).
------------------------------
Date: Thu 7 Nov 85 10:14:32-CST
From: David Throop <AI.THROOP@R20.UTEXAS.EDU>
Subject: RE: RSA encryption
> ... I will also discuss (the Boyer Moore theorem prover's)
proof of the invertiblity of the RSA public key encryption
algorithm ...
> Has RSA been broken? I thought it was NP complete. Can you
give a reference?
======================
No, it has not been broken. But it has been proven invertible. That is,
consider an (input) message encrypted with a public key and an (output)
string produced by decrypting the (encrypted) message using a private key.
The Boyer Moore theorem prover has rigorously proven that, given any
possible input, the output will be identical to it.
As Dr Moore said in last night's talk, what you would like to prove is
that no one can solve the encrypted message with only the public key. But
that's not provable, because the problem IS solvable. Its just very hard.
NP hard, in fact. What you would really like to prove are some things
about the properties of NP problems.
You will certainly hear about it if anybody around here proves any such
thing.
------------------------------
Date: 05 Nov 85 2115 PST
From: John Craig <JJC@SU-AI.ARPA>
Subject: Typed languages and Lisp
[Forwarded from the Stanford bboard by Laws@SRI-AI.
This is part of an ongoing discussion of strong typing.]
Chris Goad (Stanford CS grad) developed a language originally called SIL,
now called RISE which is essentially a typing system added to Lisp, but
with a no-type type so that one can get around typing as one desires. The
main reasons for adding typing are:
1) faster code development (type checker finds bugs)
2) the compiler can use type information to generate more efficient
object code (for example, less or no garbage collection pauses when
running compiled code)
RISE is in use at Silma Inc (Los Altos) and forms the user interface for
their product, RoboCam.
It seems to me like you get the best of lisp and typed worlds, and efficient
code generated also. Its pretty fun, too.
John
------------------------------
Date: Tue, 5 Nov 85 12:20:02 MST
From: shebs@utah-cs.ARPA (Stanley Shebs)
Subject: Re: AI Hype
Just got my announcement of AAAI-86 the other day. Big poster, bright
colors (thankfully not as garish as certain other announcements), lots
of pictures, little information. By contrast, announcements for ACM
conferences stick to the salient details and do it on the standard size
sheet of paper, although they do get radical for the national conference
and put in a little icon... If AAAI can't seem to escape the need for
hype, why should anyone assume there's actually something real in AI?
stan shebs
------------------------------
Date: Sat 2 Nov 85 08:20:07-PST
From: the tty of Geoffrey S. Goodfellow <Geoff@SRI-CSL.ARPA>
Subject: The Ultimate Hype: Mail Order "AI"!
In the interest of keeping the AI Research Community-At-Large informed of
just how out of hand AI Hype is, I offer, for your consideration the
following travesty (if you will) from the latest edition of the JS&A
"Products that THINK #16" yuppy catalog. Both pieces are rather lengthy,
but in order to appreciate the fullness of egregiousness they espouse to our
public about "ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE" (emphasis added here as well as
below), I have included them in toto.
[I have taken the liberty of cutting Geoff's 17K-char message by
about half. -- KIL]
-0- -0- -0- -0- Back Cover:
(full page)
MARKET VICTIM
I used to be a sucker for the stock market. I'd get a tip from a friend,
I'd invest on a hunch or a broker would offer me some advice and off I'd
go. On the average, I never made any money. So I dropped out of the market
until I met Hal and Bill.
Hal was one of the most astute market advisors I have ever met. At first, I
didn't trust Hal. Despite his good credentials and a well-documented
three-year track record, was still suspicious. [...]
It took the incredible accuracy of Hal and Bill to finally get me back into
the market. Hal had selected 14 stocks out of the 1500 on the New York
Stock Exchange that he felt would really take off. A few I had never heard
of. Bill advised me to sell some of my stocks in the nick of time so the
net results were 13 out of 14 winners with a few stocks giving me a return
of greater than 30% in just a four-month period. [...]
Hal and Bill are ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE computer programs--two independent
programs that perform what no other advisor or market expert has been able
to perform in the history of investing. I can now sit at my Visual Computer
(see page 10), insert both Hal and Bill into my disk drive, and be told by
this intelligent program what stocks on the New York Stock Exchange to buy
and when to sell them. [Runs on IBM compatibles with 256K memory.]
Hal gives his advice on the long range--usually his advice is good between a
three to nine month period after he makes his decisions. Once that happens,
I then follow Bill very closely because he tells me when to close that
position. If I want to know when to sell, I let Bill tell me by first
downloading the last 36 days of stock market activity from the Dow Jones
News Retrieval service with the help of my telephone modem. The program
does this automatically--all I do is press a few buttons. Then Bill takes
that information and advises me. Between both programs the accuracy will
amaze you. But that's not all. [...]
The entire program is called Halographix. [...]
The program features all the tools you need to analyze evaluate and record
your transactions. It has automatic log-on features that access the Dow
Jones News Retrieval service and download information on any stock you've
selected for your portfolio.
Each disk is valid for only four months. You pay only $199 for the program
(that's roughly $25 for each of the two independent programs per month), and
purchasing the disk entitles you to renew the disk every four months
thereafter for the same $199 per disk. Obviously, if the program doesn't
make you plenty of money, you don't renew. But for the few who have
participated, practically all of them have enthusiastically remained with
us.
Our guarantee of satisfaction is very compelling. If, after the four
months, you are not satisfied with the program or have not seen it pay for
itself many times over, please return it and get a full refund of your $199
investment. You can't lose.
To order, simply send your check, money order or credit card number to me
personally, Joseph Sugarman, President, JS&A Group, Inc., One JS&A Plaza,
Northbrook, Illinois 60062. If for some reason, we sell out our
subscription for this issue, I will promptly refund your money and keep you
on our list for our next release. But I urge you to act quickly.
I also urge you to read the article on page 20 entitled "Million Dollar
Phone." In that article, I give you an idea of the nature of ARTIFICIAL
INTELLIGENCE and the philosophy of how the program works to accurately
predict market movement.
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, the tremendous number-crunching power of your own
personal computer and the skills of a computer programmer have produced a
personal friend for the small investor. You can now compete with the big
institutions on Wall Street with advice more accurate, personal and more
astute than their huge network of advisors and computers. Join with me in
this novel program and enjoy the wealth of information Halographix provides
to guide you to success in your investment activity with the New York Stock
Exchange stocks.
Halographix (6082N 6.00)..........$199
-0- -0- -0- -0- Page 20/21:
MILLION DOLLAR TELEPHONES
What you are about to read may sound like a get-rich-quick scheme. And
indeed it may be. [...]
For the past year, I have been working with a computer genius who has
developed a program that, when run on a powerful computer, can predict the
movement of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
In our first year of testing this program, our computer generated ten
signals. Nine were accurate with the Dow making the forecasted moves within
twelve trading days.
To my knowledge, there has not been an advisor, a market expert or another
computer program that has been as accurate.
Two years ago a new form of option trading was introduced to investors.
Called OEX options, the concept gave investors a way to speculate on the
movement of the Standard and Poor's market index. This market index is very
easy to follow because it runs almost parallel to the Dow Jones Industrial
Average.
If you were right on the movement of the overall market, you could possibly
double or triple your investment within a few short weeks. If you were
wrong, all you could lost was your initial investment and no more.
Another popular feature of the option program is the tax treatment. 60% of
all your gains are treated as capital gains and 40% as ordinary income or
about a 32% effective tax rate. [...]
I have formed a club called, "Dial-An-Option," which will offer information
on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. First you sign up with JS&A as a
member, which costs you only $25. Then, at no extra charge, we provide you
with information on one major market signal. Next, sit back, relax and
watch what happens to the Dow over the next two weeks following the signal.
[....]
Our advice will be sent via an overnight delivery service so you'll get the
first market signal well enough in advance to act quickly. The signal must
make money for you and double or triple your investment or you can drop out
of our Dial-An-Option club and we'll refund your entire membership fee. Or
don't take the chance and just follow the market and see what you would have
made had you invested on our advice. [...]
Why does our computer program work so effectively? What does it do to
predict the Dow so accurately? If you'll take just a moment, I will
explain.
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
The big buzzword in software today is, "ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE," or a
special level of reasoning applied to a computer program. The reasoning
involves looking at hundreds of factors at once and then comparing those
factors to previously programmed responses and then drawing a conclusion.
Our brains operate on a similar basis. We are programmed with patterns
based on previous experiences or programming. When we have to make a
decision based on new data, we lay that new data onto previous data and then
draw our conclusions.
With the number-crunching capabilities of a powerful computer and an
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE software program, our computer can sense market
movement, movement within an industry group and even movement (accumulation
or distribution) within a specific stock.
If then computes the major 30-day trend, and interprets the fluctuations in
trading and valuation levels to determine the one-to-five day pattern within
the major trend. [...]
Our computer has the ability to first sense the changes and trends in the
market before they become obvious and then, with the minimal amount of
information, develop a comparable pattern and make a conclusion--an ideal
system for predicting the movement of the Dow Jones averages. [...]
No program or system can guarantee future profit or success. If we are not
correct on any of our calls (remember, so far we've been right on nine out
of ten calls), then you'll receive a refund of the fee--something that no
other advisory service that we know of provides. Obviously we can't
guarantee any loss that may result from our advice but we urge you never to
invest more than you're willing to lose. [...]
Thanks to a powerful computer, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, and a brilliant
program, we can no do this analytical work on a computer with greater
accuracy than even the most astute analyst or the most powerful institution.
I urge you to join our club and experience the power of our computer and its
new program designed to earn you bigger returns than you've ever dreamt
possible--and all in a very short period of time.
We've given the small investor the tool to compete with the big institutions
and enjoy the potential profits offered every day in the market place. Join
our club, today.
Dial-An-Option Membership (6078N)..........$25
OEX Options Video Tape (6079N 2.00).........39
OEX Options Audio Tape (6080N 2.00).........14
Video and Audio Tape (6081N 2.00)...........49
Note: Free OEX booklet sent to each club member or
tape purchaser.
(Dian-An-Option is a registered trademark of JS&A Group.)
------------------------------
End of AIList Digest
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