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AIList Digest Volume 3 Issue 166
AIList Digest Friday, 8 Nov 1985 Volume 3 : Issue 166
Today's Topics:
Queries - Xerox 1186 Comments,
Logic & Probability - Abductive Inference,
Linguistics - New Reports (CSLI),
Literature - AI at Past Conferences,
Opinion - AI Hype,
Humor - New Mailing List for AI Hype
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Date: Thu 7 Nov 85 09:42:55-PST
From: Ted Markowitz <G.TJM@SU-SCORE.ARPA>
Subject: Comments on the Xerox 1186...
With the idea of setting up an in-house AI lab for informal testing
of expert systems, teaching, etc., I've been looking at some of the
specialized AI hardware available. I've read the discussions so
far on the various machines available, but would like some more
opinions on the new Xerox 1186 class processor. Needless to say
price is something of a factor in my choice and this machine seems
the cheapest with most of the functionality that I seek. Any thoughts?
Pros and cons?
Please post answers to the list for redistribution. Thanks muchly.
--ted
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Date: Thu, 7 Nov 85 16:01 EST
From: Mukhop <mukhop%gmr.csnet@CSNET-RELAY.ARPA>
Subject: Abductive Inference
> From: "Sidney Markowitz" <SIDNEY%MIT-OZ@MIT-MC.ARPA>
>> Date: 26 Jan 1983 0128-PST
>> From: ISAACSON at USC-ISI
>> Abductive inference can be stated as follows:
>> The surprising fact, C, is observed;
>> But if A were true, C would be a matter of course;
>> Hence, there is reason to SUSPECT that A is true.
Assume the following:
Of the subjects with mono(nucleosis), 100% show a positive result for
the mono test. Of the subjects without mono, only 1% show a positive
result. Given that the test result for a subject (of unknown condition)
is positive, what is the likelihood of the subject having mono.
Of the total population, one out of every 10000 people is assumed to have
mono.
"The surprising fact, C, is observed;"
C is the fact that the subject tested positive. The fact is
surprising because the probability is just over 1%.
"But if A were true, C would be a matter of course;"
A is the premise that the subject has mono (A => C).
"Hence, there is reason to SUSPECT that A is true."
Therefore, there is reason to suspect that the subject has mono.
The result appears to be reasonable. However, the probability of
~A given C is .991, indicating:
If the result of the test is positive, then the subject probably
does not have mono.
More appropriately:
Despite the fact that the test is positive, the subject probably
does not have mono.
I realize that the point made by Isaacson is the generative nature
of abductive inference (used to generate plausible hypotheses for testing).
This counter-example is in the same vein as some recent contributions
to this list regarding modus ponens and the presidential triangle.
Uttam Mukhopadhyay
Comp. Sci. Dept.
GM Research Labs
Warren, MI 48090-9055
Phone: (313)575-2105
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Date: Thu 7 Nov 85 16:41:45-PST
From: Emma Pease <Emma@SU-CSLI.ARPA>
Subject: New Linguistics Reports (CSLI)
[Excerpted from the CSLI Newsletter by Laws@SRI-AI.]
NEW CSLI REPORTS
Report No. CSLI-85-37, ``On the Coherence and Structure of
Discourse'' by Jerry R. Hobbs, and Report No. CSLI-85-38, ``The
Coherence of Incoherent Discourse'' by Jerry R. Hobbs and Michael
Agar, have just been published. These reports may be obtained by
writing to David Brown, CSLI, Ventura Hall, Stanford, CA 94305 or
Brown@SU-CSLI.
------------------------------
Date: 2 Nov 1985 18:46-CST
From: leff%smu.csnet@CSNET-RELAY.ARPA
Subject: AI at Past Conferences
Eighth International Conference on Software Engineering
Augst 28-30 1985 Imperial College, London
On executable models for rule-based prototyping S. Lee USA
Session 8A Knowledge Based Apporoaches
Automating tuning of multi-task program for real time embeded system
T. Shimizu K. Sakamura
Prompter: A Knowledge based support tool for code understanding
K. Fukunaga, Japan
The Analyst - A Workstation for Design and Analysis
M. Stephens, K. Whitehead
Session 9 Discussion
Software engineering- The role of logic and AI in the software
enterprise
------------------------------
Date: 08 Nov 85 17:24:32 +1100 (Fri)
From: munnari!mungunni.oz!lee@seismo.CSS.GOV
Subject: Re: Mail Order "AI"!
This reminds me of an episode of Minder (BBC TV series), in which
Arthur (a con man) set up a racing tips business, on an "only pay
if you win" basis. They tipped all horses in each race, so some
of the clients won and paid up. A guaranteed income! I wonder if
the "AI" program for predicting the stock market uses this
heuristic.
lee
[Another possibility is that many subscribers may stay in for one or
two rounds before becoming convinced that they've been had. On the
other hand, the JS&A offer could be based on a legitimate formula
(not a breakthrough, I assume, but "chartists" have been known to do
quite with their formulas) that has recently donned AI garb. I
have some of my savings in a "timing service" that uses a similar
approach. -- KIL]
------------------------------
Date: Fri 8 Nov 85 10:48:37-CST
From: CMP.MGREEN@R20.UTEXAS.EDU
Subject: ai hype
You ain't heard nothin' yet.
PCWeek, "The national newspaper of IBM standard microcomputing", ran a four
part review during October of a fourthcoming book by Mickey Williamson titled
"Artificial Intelligence for Microcomputers: A Business Design". Although
the book appears to give a generally well balanced view of the current
capabilities of AI it occasionally misses the mark.
>From the start it is apparent that the author knows very little about the
subject and was forced to rely on facts and opinions supplied by others
without being able to provide some kind of sanity check. Case in point:
He quotes Barbra Wallace of KDS corporation who "worked on a molecular
memory project in the 1950s" as predicting that within 10 years we will see
a microcomputer with capabilities comparable to 2001's HAL, "but she stops
short of predicting what it will cost".
I guess it's time to offer Stanley Kubric a position with our group, if he
did it once maybe he can do it again.
Cheers -- Mike Green
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Date: Thu 7 Nov 85 16:14:27-CST
From: CMP.BARC@R20.UTEXAS.EDU
Subject: New Mailing List for AI Hype
Due to the volume of extraordinary AI claims, we have established
a new mailing list for promoting and isolating AI hype. This list
is designed for persons who wish to lie, exaggerate or otherwise
misinform regarding the potential and/or accomplishments of AI.
Inflated discussions about AI features, enhancements, performance,
support, and other topics of interest to venture capitalists are
welcome. Discussions about bugs, development problems, anything
approaching realism or legitimacy, or about AI hype itself are
specifically discouraged, as they are more appropriate for AIList
or other mailing lists. These restrictions will have to be left
as a matter of "honor among thieves", since the list will NOT be
moderated, but will act as a mail "reflector" - ie., any message
sent to the list will be rebroadcast to everyone on the list.
The list will be maintained at Smart Expertelligeneric Logical Infer-
enceware and Teknowledgecraft Inc., using a proposed neural emulation
network of 3,140,000 parallel Lisp machines (Our current configuration
is an Explorer prototype and a Commodore 64, running CP/M.). SELIT is
connected to the ARPAnet (both military and educational) and uucp, and
has gateways to CSNET, BITNET and Compuserve. Thus, it should be pos-
sible to access every business, school or home in the U.S. and many in
Europe. Therefore we hope to be able to reach every gullible element of
the computing community. Of course, we intend to charge an exorbitant
fee for inclusion in the mailing list, until our subscribers figure out
that the list has nothing to offer beyond the current, conventional
lists and bulletin boards.
To add your name to the list, change or delete a name or have other
administrative requests serviced, send mail to:
ARPAnet: AIHype-REQUEST@SELIT.ARPA
uucp: ...ihnp3.14!selit!aihype-request
To post a submission to the list, send mail to:
ARPAnet: AIHype@SELIT.ARPA
uucp: ...ihnp3.14!selit!aihype
Please, do NOT bother the entire list with a request to have your name
added or deleted! The general discussion should be bothersome enough.
Feel free to rebroadcast this announcement to anyone who might
be interested.
Dallas Webster
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End of AIList Digest
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